Dear colleagues,
As World Bank and IMF leaders gather in Washington, I am pleased to announce the publication today of an ICC-commissioned, independent study by Oxford Economics, ‘The impact on developing economies of WTO dissolution’.
This groundbreaking study unequivocally demonstrates the vital importance of the World Trade Organization in fostering global economic growth and development.
The focus of the Oxford Economics analysis is on the potential long-term structural impacts of WTO dissolution on developing countries. This is reflected in the presentation of the results, with metrics reported in terms of how they compare to baseline (“status quo” with the WTO) forecasts for 2030. According to Oxford Economics’ modelling, a dissolution of the WTO system would lead to:
- A 33% drop in developing economies’ merchandise trade relative to a baseline scenario with the multilateral system still in place
- A permanent GDP loss to developing countries of over 5% – driven in part by a 5% decline in FDI flows
- Acute export losses of 43% in low-income economies and 32% in middle-income countries at a regional level
- At a regional level, significant export reductions in Sub-Saharan African (42%) and South Asia (41%).
The findings of this first-of-its-kind analysis underscore the fundamental development safety-net provided by the WTO. It is a companion piece to our paper on WTO reform and underscores the vital importance of reforming – not abandoning – the organisation.
I urge you to share the study with your governments.
You can find the study here. And our social media posts LinkedIn, X.
Thank you, as ever, for your support.
